Quick Facts:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October.
- The federal unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent.
- Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
- The unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million, changed little in October.
- Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 164,000 over the month to 1.6 million. The number of persons on temporary layoff changed little at 873,000.
Looking Forward:
- The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000.
- The Fed uses wage data as one component of its inflation watch. The central bank has opted not to raise interest rates at its past two meetings despite inflation running well above its 2% target. Following Friday’s jobs data, markets further reduced the probability of a rate hike in December to just 10%, according to a CME Group gauge.
- From a sector standpoint, healthcare led with 58,000 new jobs. Other leading gainers included government (51,000), construction (23,000), and social assistance (19,000). Leisure and hospitality, which has been a top job gainer, added 19,000 as well.
- Manufacturing posted a loss of 35,000, all but 2,000 of which came because of the auto strikes. Transportation and warehousing saw a decline of 12,000 while information-related industries lost 9,000.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
